{"id":3406,"date":"2026-10-19T19:12:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T19:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/?p=3406"},"modified":"2026-10-19T19:14:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T19:14:15","slug":"michavila-gad3-el-guru-demoscopico-del-pp-no-descarta-en-lasexta-que-el-psoe-supere-al-pp-el-29n","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/2026\/10\/19\/michavila-gad3-el-guru-demoscopico-del-pp-no-descarta-en-lasexta-que-el-psoe-supere-al-pp-el-29n\/","title":{"rendered":"Michavila (GAD3), el gur\u00fa demosc\u00f3pico del PP, no descarta en laSexta que el PSOE supere al PP el 29N"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- VideographyWP Plugin Message: Automatic video embedding prevented by plugin options. -->\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Narciso Michavila, presidente de GAD3, reconoci\u00f3 este lunes 19 de octubre en <em>Al Rojo Vivo<\/em>, el programa de Antonio Garc\u00eda Ferreras en laSexta, que no descarta que el PSOE pueda quedar por delante del PP en las elecciones generales del 29 de noviembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un posible sorpasso que no cambia la aritm\u00e9tica<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La posibilidad de que los socialistas acaben primeros no altera, seg\u00fan el an\u00e1lisis de Michavila, el panorama de fondo. Aunque la pelea entre los dos grandes partidos est\u00e9 abierta, el soci\u00f3logo sostiene que el bloque de la derecha est\u00e1 muy por delante del de la izquierda. Estima que PP y Vox sumar\u00edan entre 185 y 190 esca\u00f1os. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La mayor\u00eda absoluta est\u00e1 en 176 de los 350 diputados. Con esa horquilla, al resto de la C\u00e1mara le quedar\u00edan entre 160 y 165 esca\u00f1os, una cifra que no alcanzar\u00eda la mayor\u00eda ni sumando al PSOE con todos sus socios posibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De ah\u00ed la conclusi\u00f3n de su intervenci\u00f3n. Que el PSOE fuera la lista con m\u00e1s diputados cambiar\u00eda el relato de la noche electoral, pero no le abrir\u00eda por s\u00ed solo la puerta de La Moncloa. Para gobernar necesitar\u00eda que la suma de PP y Vox bajara de los 176 esca\u00f1os. El medio compara la situaci\u00f3n con la de 2023, pero a la inversa. Entonces el PP de Feij\u00f3o fue la lista m\u00e1s votada y no reuni\u00f3 apoyos. Ahora los socialistas ser\u00edan la posible primera fuerza con la mayor\u00eda en la otra orilla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vox, el motor de la ventaja<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para Michavila, el motor de esa ventaja del bloque de derechas es el crecimiento de Vox, que empuja la suma con el PP hasta esa horquilla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">De 202 a 185: la evoluci\u00f3n de la derecha en GAD3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Las cifras de Michavila se pueden situar frente a los sondeos recientes de su propia empresa. En septiembre, en una entrevista en <em>Herrera en COPE<\/em>, el presidente de GAD3 destac\u00f3 como principal novedad de la \u00faltima encuesta que las dos derechas sumaban 202 esca\u00f1os. Ese mismo mes ya advert\u00eda del creciente desgaste del Gobierno y situaba la vivienda y la inmigraci\u00f3n entre los asuntos que pueden decidir el voto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seg\u00fan <em>Dem\u00f3crata<\/em>, la encuesta de GAD3 para <em>ABC<\/em> publicada el 12 de octubre situaba a PP y Vox en 198 diputados, cuatro menos que en septiembre y a\u00fan 22 por encima de los 176 necesarios. En ese sondeo el PSOE mejoraba hasta 107 esca\u00f1os y Sumar alcanzaba diez. La horquilla que Michavila ofreci\u00f3 en laSexta es, por tanto, algo inferior a la de esa encuesta. Eso sugiere que la derecha cede terreno, aunque el dato de laSexta es una estimaci\u00f3n verbal en un programa, no un sondeo publicado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El bloque PP-Vox habr\u00eda bajado de 202 a 185, y en descenso diario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,175],"tags":[292],"class_list":["post-3406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destacados2","category-espana","tag-demoscopia"],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-150x150.webp","medium":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-300x169.webp","medium_large":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-768x432.webp","large":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-1024x576.webp","1536x1536":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29.webp","2048x2048":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29.webp","colormag-highlighted-post":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-392x272.webp","colormag-featured-post-medium":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-390x205.webp","colormag-featured-post-small":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-130x90.webp","colormag-featured-image":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-800x445.webp","colormag-default-news":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-150x150.webp","colormag-featured-image-large":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-1280x600.webp"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"Laverdad.tech\/almeria","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f21dc133dd1ebd43a20583d2fcd62e6beb4b50d962f93c9b5d036007e9e9912f?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":"0","magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"El bloque PP-Vox habr\u00eda bajado de 202 a 185, y en descenso diario.","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["Destacados 2","Espa\u00f1a"],"magazineBlocksPostViewCount":70,"magazineBlocksPostReadTime":3,"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29.webp",1280,720,false],"medium":["https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-300x169.webp",300,169,true],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/505aea5e-133b-4b3d-a7a1-74051b5c6e29-150x150.webp",150,150,true]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"Laverdad.tech\/almeria","author_link":"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/author\/admin\/"},"magazine_blocks_comment":0,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f21dc133dd1ebd43a20583d2fcd62e6beb4b50d962f93c9b5d036007e9e9912f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/category\/destacados2\/\">Destacados 2<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/category\/espana\/\">Espa\u00f1a<\/a>","videoUrl":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Michavila (GAD3), el gur\u00fa demosc\u00f3pico del PP, no descarta en laSexta que el PSOE supere al PP el 29N - Almer\u00eda<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/laverdad.tech\/almeria\/2026\/10\/19\/michavila-gad3-el-guru-demoscopico-del-pp-no-descarta-en-lasexta-que-el-psoe-supere-al-pp-el-29n\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Michavila (GAD3), el gur\u00fa demosc\u00f3pico del PP, no descarta en laSexta que el PSOE supere 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